10 Causes of the Great Recession

The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission recently released its 545 page report detailing the causes of the 2008 financial collapse following the Lehman Bankruptcy and ensuing Great Recession, seven consecutive quarters of economic contraction. Of the 13 major financial institutions, the only one not on the verge of collapsing at the depth of the crisis was JP Morgan Chase. (JP would be proud.) Financial sector debt hit $36 trillion and then it hit the fan. Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve Chairman, is quoted in the report as saying: “As a scholar of the Great Depression, I honestly believe that September and October of 2008 was the worst financial crisis in global history, including the Great Depression.” And went on to say of the 13 major financial institutions: “12 were at risk of failure within a period of a week or two.” Phew!

First up: Greedy Wall Street Bankers & the Agency Risk

Curiously enough, not all the members of the Commission came to the same conclusion, largely we believe, for political reasons. The majority contend, as described in the report, that the financial crisis was primarily a regulatory failure or more precisely the result of unchecked greedy Wall Street Bankers’ 8that, with the help of Washington politicians, securitized mortgages (Collateralized Mortgage Obligations or “CMOs”), to defraud homeowners and mortgage investors, putting the entire financial system at risk (12 of 13 anyway) for massive personal gain. Hence, the Dodd Frank Wall Street Reform & Consumer Protection Act which fits nicely into this conclusion, conveniently passed into law before the Commission released its report. Imagine that.

What about Government Meddling?

A second but politically less acceptable narrative, originally offered by the Brookings Institution in 2009 before Dodd Frank, centers on the Government’s intervention into the housing markets through Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (the great landfill for toxic assets) creating a housing bubble that went bust, and setting off the financial crisis. To be sure, the political class has long been a proponent of spreading the American Dream of home ownership to everyone, even those that could not afford it.  And why not? It beats the promise of a chicken in every pot hands down. Politicians know how to get votes, spread the wealth. The Achilles’ heel of democracy is one man one vote (the asset) and the progressive tax system (the money). Placing the blame on Freddie and Fannie, while appealing in its simplicity, really isn’t practical, because, well, its democracy.

Issues with Theories One and Two

The problem with the Wall Street Fat Cats and cozy politicians theory is the breadth and depth of the financial firm failures (not everybody got bailed out), that occurred over a number of different financial firm models regulated by disparate regulatory authorities both in the US and Europe. Smart as those Wall Street folks might be the conspiracy theory seems implausible. Bear Sterns and Lehman, for example, didn’t survive. Of all the major Wall Street Banks, only one, Goldman Sachs emulates the old order, all the rest have become commercial banks. Morgan Stanley, a venerable name, was on the brink of collapse, escaping just barely. To be sure, individuals improperly incentivized pursued their own interests over those of their clients, and even their own firms. When the invisible hand of huge sums of money exerts it power, mere mortals (at least the weak ones), cannot resist. While we can’t condone it, what did you expect really?

To be sure, Freddie and Fannie were an accident waiting to happen; but, the idea of a solely Freddie and Fannie induced housing bubble is less plausible because housing bubbles occurred all over the world, with different financing schemes and regulatory regimes. In other words the housing bubble was not a US only exclusive event. Notable housing bubbles inflated in the UK and Spain as examples. Our neighbors to the north, Canada, managed to avoid the housing bubble malaise, keeping the financial system healthy and enabling Canuks to come to America and buy up sick banks on the cheap, with the loonie at better than parity. What will we live to see next?

The Integrated Theory

The integrated theory as offered up in the dissenting opinion from three of the Commissions’ members (Bill Thomas, Keith Hennessey, and Douglas Holtz-Eakin), doesn’t fit as neatly into the political landscape but appears to make really good sense from  an overall macroeconomic perspective. This explanation points to 10 causal factors globally that touched off the financial collapse and the Great Recession. We like it best.

The first 3 factors have to do with global credit bubbles, factor 1, or excess liquidity, the inflating housing bubble in the US, factor 2, and the rise of the subprime mortgage securitized as the CMO, factor 3.

At the turn of the century, the US and Europe was awash in liquidity, money looking for yield. In June 2003, Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan, had the Fed Funds rate at 1%; the spigot was wide open. This liquidity helped spark the housing bubble in the US, on the premise that housing values can only go up, and in a CMO the risk is spread wide. The demand for CMO’s was so great and the belief in up only housing values so strong that traditional mortgage underwriting practices where waived aside (weren’t enough good loans to soak up the available money) and the subprime mortgage arrived, factor 4. Who cares about the credit risk of the borrower, the rising value of the housing assets will more than cover the defaults. This is the answer to “What were they thinking.”

The credit bubble, housing bubble and subprime mortgages in and of themselves would have been manageable were it not for the fact that, factor 5, very highly leveraged financial institutions, here and abroad, amassed an enormous concentration of CMO risk (usually from hedge fund clients) linked to housing risk, with insufficient capital support. As collateral for that leverage, the financial institutions held CMO underpinning assets. As firms began to falter and “dump” assets to meet margin calls, the prices of those assets fell. Mark to market accounting rules forced all firms to write down assets to “market,” that being the last distressed trade, and when that happened, the margin calls resumed. Failure to meet a margin call meant lenders unloaded even more assets depressing prices further, and so it goes.

Among the first to fall were two Bear Sterns funds leveraged better than 30 to 1 (at this leverage a 3% move in the price of the asset wipes out the equity), which the fund’s managers (who rightly avoided jail) thought was acceptable since their positions in the sliced and diced (thanks Mike Milken) CMO’s were top tier and erroneously rated triple A by the rating agencies, factor 5. (Incidentally, the bottom of this barrel was so toxic that oftentimes the securitizers got stuck with it. Go figure.) As if the leverage itself wasn’t enough, the debt was largely short term debt, factor 6, because short term debt is cheaper and all the bankers know from banking 101 that banks make money by borrowing short and lending long. Duh? To be fair, the investors did a poor job of due diligence when they brought the crap; caveat emptor. Good advice even when it’s raining money.

Eventually, the dominos began to fall as these short-term financed highly leveraged firms with excessive exposure to a collapsing asset class, began to fail. Many firms with similar risk profiles failed simply because of the overall market collapse, factor 7. Some market participants had counterparty risk exposures, mostly from credit default swaps, that created a contagion, factor 8, where one firm makes all the rest sick. The poster child example is AIG, which the Government bailed out for one simple reason, (no not because Goldman Sachs made them), if AIG went down, all of the major banks would follow. The Government stepped in and made good on those insurance policies that kept the banks afloat. Goldman got about $12 billion, just FYI; and Hank Greenberg is still screaming about it!

The other shoe dropped in September 2008 when the Government allowed Lehman Brothers to fail in a pathetic attempt to rein in “moral hazard,” the notion that if the Government will bail you out, there is no limit to the risk you can take. Put more eloquently, bailouts fostered an environment of “privatized profits” and “socialized losses.” Nevertheless, a full blown panic, factor 9, set in after Lehman failed, bringing the entire financial system to a grinding halt. The ensuing financial meltdown exacerbated the economic recession, factor 10, which got underway in the fourth quarter of 2007, and gave birth to a severe contraction in the real economy dubbed the “Great Recession.” And there you have it.

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